Is there a property bubble in China?
There may be a visible slowdown in housing starts and construction towards the end of this year, KELVIN TAY believes
THRUST centre stage as a result of the decline in the G-7 economies in a post-2008 credit crisis world, the Chinese economy has gained a new level of significance and scrutiny that often generates unwanted, alarmist racket.
Is there a property bubble in China? The answer bears more significance now than ever before. China's construction and real estate sectors are likely to contribute to an estimated 11 per cent of its GDP in 2010. The construction industry employs 14.3 per cent of all workers in urban areas and consumes 40 per cent of all steel and lumber produced in China.
The private residential sector currently accounts for almost 40 per cent of the buildings completed by the construction industry. Never before has the health of the Chinese construction and real estate sectors been more closely followed.
Analysing a large, diverse economy like China's is complex, to say the least. Her sheer size and diversity in terms of economic development makes nationwide average figures rather meaningless. For example, from April 2009 to April 2010, residential property prices in China rose by 15 per cent and when juxtaposed with the price declines in 2008, would hardly set alarm bells ringing.
However, a closer examination of tier 1 cities revealed that in the 12-month period to April 2010, property prices rose by 64 per cent in Beijing, 39 per cent in Shanghai and actually doubled in Shenzhen.
The tier 1 cities accounted for almost 22 per cent of urban residential property sales, rather disproportionate to their share of 8 per cent of total floor space. Prices in Beijing reached a stratospheric 28,000 yuan per square metre in the same period.
Although long documented trends of urbanisation, rural to urban migration and a shortfall in the supply of public housing have resulted in property prices in China rising steadily over the last five years, what actually fuelled the extraordinary climb in prices over the last 12 months has largely been attributed to the increasing participation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the property market.
Higher price
A study conducted by researchers from the National University of Singapore and Tsinghai University found that the transaction price of land tends to be 27.4 per cent higher when it is successfully bid by an SOE.
In certain cities like Beijing, the local and central SOEs' share of developers' land purchases have reached an estimated 71 per cent in early 2010, up from about 37 per cent in 2003.
Leverage, another indication of whether an asset bubble is building, has also seen a steady increase. If we assume that only urban households have access to mortgage lending, then mortgage debt as a proportion of urban household income is near 50 per cent, which makes it a tad uncomfortable.
We also need to take into consideration that in the case of China, where a large share of household wealth exists in the form of bank deposits, it is vulnerable to various forms of asset bubbles as and when households decide to shift a certain proportion to other asset classes, including property.
Although property purchases require a larger amount of capital (initial down payment), it is clearly not a major obstacle, especially in a period when property prices are escalating and return expectations get artificially inflated.
In that sense, we view the property tightening measures announced by the Chinese government in May with measured relief.
The policies are largely aimed at stabilising the market by curbing speculative demand and at the same time, increasing the supply of housing, in particular public housing.
At this stage of its economic cycle, a slowdown in China's property market is very much welcome news. If the Chinese real estate sector continues to grow at breakneck speed with little breathing space, it would certainly magnify the risk of overheating followed by a systemic collapse. This would have serious ramifications for Asia, including Singapore.
A collapse in China's property market resulting in financial contagion might affect the Singapore property market both directly and indirectly. As of July this year, Chinese nationals are currently the second largest source of foreign buyers of property in Singapore. Any crash in China's property market and subsequent economic slowdown would probably change that equation.
Furthermore, over the past two decades, systemic crises have always negatively impacted Singapore's property market. The Asian financial crisis in July 1997, Nasdaq crash in March 2000 and the credit crisis in 2008 all resulted in double-digit declines in the local property market.
However, it is the indirect impact that is actually more worrying. Since 2007, almost all home loans in Singapore are based on floating rates. Mortgage rates are usually pegged to the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor) or three-month Singapore Offered Rate (SOR), plus a premium that ranges between 1.25 per cent and 1.75 per cent.
Spike
Therefore, if Sibor or SOR spikes up suddenly and remains at stubbornly elevated levels for a period of time, property owners tied to such loans might suddenly find their monthly mortgages taking up a disproportionate amount of their monthly income.
Have there been instances when Sibor suddenly behaved erratically? The Asian financial crisis was one such example. Sibor spiked up to a high of 7.75 per cent before finally sliding to 1.9 per cent in December 1998. The average rate of Sibor during that 18-month period hovered at 4.9 per cent. As Asia was fortunately not at the epicentre of the credit crisis in 2008, Sibor did not behave erratically but averaged around 1.3 per cent, more than twice the current rate of 0.56 per cent.
So what is the likelihood of the above scenario panning out? Fortunately, we believe the chances are slim. The sharp appreciation in property prices in China have been largely restricted to the tier 1 cities, leaving the fundamentals of the broader market intact.
Although we do not expect China's property sector or economic growth to collapse, we believe that there may be a rather visible slowdown in housing starts and construction towards the end of this year, with any possibility of a reversal of the property tightening measures and/or loosening in monetary policy likely to be in early 2011. We believe this could potentially be the catalyst for the Shanghai A-Share Composite index, which is currently the worst performing stock market in Asia ex-Japan, to outperform.
The writer is chief investment strategist Singapore, at UBS Wealth Management.
Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Complex market: A pedestrian looking up at a billboard advertising luxury apartments under construction in central Beijing. The sharp appreciation in property prices in China have been largely restricted to the tier 1 cities, leaving the fundamentals of the broader market intact
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