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Thursday, November 12, 2009

High luxury-home prices are good

(Abstract by Business Times 12th Nov,2009 by Leslie Yee)

Policymakers can focus on alleviating life's anxieties such as providing low-cost quality education, healthcare coverage


I WORK in the real estate sector in Hong Kong but do not cover the residential property market. Nevertheless, like many residents of the Special Administrative Region, I have been fascinated by recent market developments. Over the past few months, prices have been rising, China buyers have been increasingly active, developers have been launching units and analysts have been talking about the lack of supply. Debate raged over the sustainability of price rises with the argument centring on lingering economic weakness versus abundant liquidity coupled with early signs of economic improvement.

News then broke in late October of Henderson Land's sale of a duplex at 39 Conduit Road for HK$439 million (S$78.54 million) or a world record HK$71,280 per square foot. What has since ensued is heated discussion over whether dreams of home ownership for the middle class in Hong Kong have been shattered in part due to rich China buyers driving up prices. Calls are being made for the government to tame the raging animal spirits in the Hong Kong residential market.

The themes playing out in the Hong Kong market are to some extent applicable to Singapore, although the Singapore private residential market rally this time round has been mass-market-led while that in Hong Kong is driven by the high end. Still, with Singapore's imminent opening of the integrated resorts, there could be a new spring in step for high-end properties.

In Hong Kong, questions being discussed include: Are foreigners pricing out locals? Do sky high prices for luxury units matter? What can and should government do to control property prices? What help if any should government render middle-class locals in owning their homes? Are the controversies in the property market a reflection of economic growth in recent years benefiting high-income earners disproportionately while the rest lag behind?

Invariably, there will be some degree of envy when wealthy foreigners come to any city and lord it over the locals. Such a scenario emerges in many a successful city, with rich Russians and Arabs in London, rich China nationals in Hong Kong and rich Indonesians in Singapore. However, should one follow the head rather than the heart, it is not just the Hong Kong property tycoons who ought to celebrate the sale of a luxury unit for HK$71,280 psf but everyone.

Wealthy people have a choice of where to invest their money. Hong Kong people should be proud that there are a fair number of rich people confident enough in Hong Kong's prospects to pay princely sums for property in the territory. Indeed, having millions poured into residential property helps generate real-estate-related jobs plus spending by the dwellers of luxury properties. Real estate investment may not generate the same amount of economic spin-offs as investment into manufacturing but they still bring economic benefits.

Singapore and Hong Kong share many similarities, key of which is that both cities, in my view, have a bright future catering to a rapidly growing Asia as hubs of finance, trade, transport, tourism, and various other services. Economic success of both cities does depend on keeping an open door to foreigners and this includes being broadly welcoming to participation by foreigners in the property market. Hong Kong has an important strategic fight on its hands of being competitively positioned as Shanghai and Beijing make strides up the league of global cities. The people of Hong Kong should be more concerned with the city's ability to thrive in an ever-changing global landscape than the state of the property market. Of course, should Hong Kong continue to grow as a key business hub, expect more reports of developers selling luxury units for mind-boggling sums.

Shelter is a basic need of man and owning a home is a key purchase decision for many people. Defining the type of housing that the middle class should be able to afford is, however, tricky. I believe that all policymakers can largely do is to ensure that there is adequate land supply such that there is a range of property types at different price points available. Just as with any consumer product, we should rely on developers to offer choice to meet a variety of needs.

It is not surprising that developments in the residential property market generate strong emotions. Very high prices at luxury projects are not mere aberrations and high prices at the high end can lead the rest of the market up. Nonetheless, the high end typically forms a small part of the wider market and purchasers at the high end tend to be financially strong, Thus, it would be wrong to see high luxury-unit prices as indicative of a property bubble, which is what policymakers rightly fret about. Instead, what policymakers could do is to be more effective in winning hearts and minds - that high prices at the high end are generally a good thing.

More critically, what policymakers in successful Asian cities can focus on is to put any discussion of residential real estate in a wider context. While anxieties of the middle class with regards to home ownership may be difficult to assuage, the state can focus on doing more in other areas to alleviate life's anxieties such as providing low-cost quality education, healthcare coverage and help with retirement savings. Let the pursuit of making a city a great place to work, live and play go together with ensuring that a range of needs of local residents are well taken care of. While not everyone can live in a prime neighbourhood, everyone can perhaps get reasonably good health care and education.

The writer is a Hong Kong-based real estate executive with extensive experience in the Singapore property market

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Group8asia-Aedas design for Punggol homes

(Abstract from Business Times 12th Nov, 2009 by Uma Shankari)

THE design for the first public housing project along the upcoming Punggol waterway has been chosen.

International architectural firm group8asia has emerged as winner of the Housing & Development Board's Punggol Waterfront housing design competition. Group8asia teamed up with local firm Aedas to come up with the winning design.

The development, which will be launched in mid-2010, will have about 1,200 mostly four-bedroom apartments and will offer residents an eco-friendly housing experience, HDB said.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan announced the winner at an HDB awards ceremony yesterday.

The design will set the benchmark for other developments along the 4.2km waterway. Mr Mah said: 'I am glad to note that the private sector has responded enthusiastically to the challenge of coming up with truly innovative design proposals for this highly anticipated housing project.'

More than 100 firms took part in the contest, half of them foreign firms from as far as Spain, the Netherlands, Japan and Hong Kong.

The government's plans call for about 21,000 homes to be built along the Punggol waterway - comprising 60 per cent public housing and 40 per cent private housing. The waterway is slated to be completed by end-2010.

The winning design will take shape on the first residential plot to be developed along the waterway.

HDB said that the design by group8asia and Aedas stood out from the rest for its sky terrace concepts, with spaces for roof gardens. Other winning attributes include the resort-like design of the development, the 'functional and workable layout' of the site, and the refreshing housing forms that could be replicated along the waterway.

Chong Fook Loong, HDB's deputy director for physical planning, said that homes in the development will be kept affordable. In the same vein, Mr Mah said during the awards ceremony that HDB must be mindful to be cost-effective when designing and building its flats.

The ceremony recognised seven winners with a total of 12 awards in the categories of construction safety, quality and design. Two companies, China Construction and Surbana International, won multiple awards. The other five winners were Thong Huat Brothers, Kian Hiap Construction, Kienta Engineering Construction, Sim Lian Construction and United Premas.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.



Refreshing: The winning design stood out from the rest for its sky terrace concepts, HDB says

Don't give up confirmed list card again

(Abstract from Business Times 12th Nov,2009 by Kalpana Rashiwala)

Maintaining land supply will help alleviate volatilities in property prices and rents when cycles change suddenly

LAST week, the Ministry of National Development (MND) revealed a slate of eight residential sites that it would sell on the confirmed list starting January 2010. This came after a break of about a year on the sale of such sites.

Should confirmed list land sales have been suspended for such a long period? When markets suddenly pick up and land prices shoot up - as they have this year - it translates to less affordable homes in the mass-market segment.

For the Government Land Sales Programme to be effective, both the confirmed and reserve lists need to operate side by side. By restricting state land sales to the reserve list system - where sites are triggered for launch only upon successful application by developers - the state may effectively be giving all the cards to developers, who have their own self-interest at heart, first and foremost.

For instance, it would not be in a major office landlord's interest to make an application seeking the release of an office site from the reserve list if it is trying to fill a major office development and hopes that office rents will increase. However, if there is suddenly a pick-up in office demand - for example, if major financial institutions and funds resume their strategy of expanding in Asia and setting up hubs in Singapore - office rents could suddenly spike. Having sales of sites on the confirmed list would help to mitigate this.

Mass-market condo sites

Another drawback of selling land only through the reserve list has emerged of late, with prices of mass-market condo sites soaring at state tenders.

In October last year, MND suspended confirmed list land sales. That made sense at the time, during the dark days of the global financial crash. However, it continued the suspension for the first-half 2009 Government Land Sales programme and later, for the H2 2009 programme, even though developers' home sales had shown clear signs of revival by the time the H2 2009 slate was announced in early June.

After several months of strong home sales, especially in the mass-market segment, developers found that they had started to run out of entry-level private residential land. However, it was only in July that they began triggering residential sites for release through the reserve list. To date, six sites have been released, of which tenders for five have closed and been awarded - amid rising land prices.

Many of the sites are well located - near MRT stations, or near reservoirs. These are naturally the type of sites that developers would want released in the reserve list during a mass-market housing boom. However, such prime sites, because they are worth more, also lead to rising land values when there is a shortage of such plots in developers' landbanks. A rapid hike in land prices is not compatible with the national goal of keeping mass-market private home prices affordable.

Had the confirmed list not been suspended for the current half, the government could have used it to introduce some less-choice sites further away from MRT stations and not so near the city, just as it has now done for the H1 2010 confirmed list.

One can't blame developers for not wanting land released too early in the cycle from the reserve list. Frankly, it's not in their interest. Their motivation is to increase the value of their landbanks and existing properties; and having less land supply is generally better than having more supply.

There are also other factors at play. Developers don't have the best information - such as the size of new investments flowing into Singapore in the near future, how many permanent residents and new citizens Singapore will take in each year, and how much monies high net worth foreigners are parking in Singapore. The government has a much better idea.

Always maintaining at least a minimum supply in the confirmed list - in both good times and bad - will help alleviate the volatilities in land values, property prices and rents that come when cycles change suddenly, as they have in the mass-market private housing sector this year.

Booms and busts

While the government has, in the past, suspended the confirmed list midstream of its half-yearly programme when the market turns south, it has never restarted the confirmed list midstream when things suddenly picked up. Instead, it has waited for the prevailing half-year period to end before restarting the confirmed list. The argument for this would be that the authorities want to play by the rules and give more notice to market participants.

However, the substantial time-lag in resuming the confirmed list exaggerates the booms and busts in the property market.

That is why both lists need to operate side by side.

The government does not sell confirmed list sites if bids come in too low. Its usual policy is to award sites only if the top bids are at least 85 per cent of the Chief Valuer's assessed market value. This reserve-price formula - if rigorously applied - acts as a safety mechanism that would create a price floor for state land sites so that land prices don't crash and further erode market confidence in a downturn.

As the Singapore property market matures, it will be able to absorb news of confirmed list sites attracting no bids or low bids - and the sites subsequently not being sold by government. Over time, they will come to be seen as part of natural market cyclical fluctuations. The government should hold some of the cards by maintaining a confirmed list throughout instead of leaving everything in the hands of developers.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hersing Q3 profit soars on ERA's strong sales

(Abstract from Business Times 12th Nov,2009 by By Uma Shankari)

PROPERTY firm ERA Real Estate saw its Q3 profit jump more than five-fold year-on-year as it sold more homes.

Hersing Corporation, its listed parent company, said yesterday in its Q3 financial statement that ERA's after-tax profit for the three months ended Sept 30 climbed to $3.7 million, from $651,000 in 2008. Revenue rose 58 per cent to $57.1 million from $36 million.

'Not only have (home) prices increased, but the volume of transactions has also increased a lot,' said Hersing president Jack Chua.

The strong showing of its property division pushed Hersing's Q3 net profit up 315 per cent to $4.4 million, from $1.1 million in Q3 2008. Revenue rose 49 per cent to $67.2 million, from $45 million in 2008. Revenue was also boosted as Hersing's two other business divisions, StorHub Self Storage and its Western Union money transfer business, also posted better year-on-year results.

ERA marketed a slew of private home launches in the first nine months of the year, including Caspian, Double Bay Residences, The Gale and The Interlace. The company's data shows that of the 12,828 new private homes sold in the first three quarters of 2009, ERA's share came to 2,494, or about 19 per cent.

Mr Chua said that ERA has been working to increase its market share for sales of new private homes as the margins are better. 'New (private) homes contribute a bugger margin for the company than resale flats,' he said.

The firm is now best known for its HDB resale business. In the first nine months of 2009, ERA's market share of the HDB resale market came to 41 per cent.

Mr Chua also said that he expects ERA to be appointed as the marketing agent for more private property launches in 2010.

'The government is releasing more land for buildings more homes, so we will have more market opportunities for ERA,' he said, referring to the decision to restart the confirmed list of the Government Land Sales programme in the first half of next year to meet the strong demand for private homes.

ERA has already been appointed to market several private residential developments that could be launched in Q1 2010.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, ERA saw after tax profit climb 181 per cent to $5.8 million, while revenue rose 19 per cent to $116.1 million.

For Hersing, net profit for the first three quarters rose 116 per cent to $8 million, while revenue climbed 18 per cent to $144.8 million.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-spec space losing favour due to low office rents

(Abstract from Business Times - 12 Nov 2009, by Emilyn Yap)

Some firms have gone back to leasing commercial space.

HIGH-spec industrial space has lost favour with tenants in the past few months. As office rents plunged, some companies have gone back to leasing commercial space, says Colliers International.

The move has, in turn, driven down rents for high-spec space. According to the property consultancy, the average monthly gross rent of high-spec space fell 14.1 per cent to $2.93 per square foot at end-September from $3.41 psf at end-March.

The lower rents reflect stiff competition for tenants, Colliers said, adding that some companies had taken advantage of the sharp drop in office rents to relocate to office premises.

This marks a reversal of the trend that started in 2007. As office rents soared on the back of a booming economy, more firms moved away from the central business district to cheaper high-spec industrial space.

But office rents have plummeted amid the economic slowdown. CB Richard Ellis said in September that monthly prime office rents averaged $7.50 psf in the third quarter, dropping 12.8 per cent from the previous quarter. They have fallen 53.4 per cent from their peak in Q3 last year.

Colliers said that on top of shrinking demand, a large supply of high-spec space is expected to appear next year, which has also contributed to falling rents.

In contrast, rents for some factories and warehouses have been relatively stable. Colliers said that from end-March to end-September, the average monthly gross rent of single-user factories in central Singapore stayed firm at $1.30 psf, while that of warehouses in eastern Singapore held up at $1.20 psf.

And on a positive note, Colliers said that there has been a noticeable pick-up in sales of industrial space. These involved mainly private investors, owner-occupiers and domestic companies.

While industrial space markets across the Asia-Pacific appear to be bottoming out, Colliers remains cautious in its outlook. It believes that these markets could stay subdued in the next 12 months, given that the global economy is still recovering and excess manufacturing capacity still exists.

Colliers research and advisory director Tay Huey Ying expects rents and capital values of factories and warehouses in Singapore to rise by up to 5 per cent in the next 12 months 'on the back of the expected improvement in the economy and the manufacturing sector, as well as more optimistic business sentiment'.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

TODAY online : Reits required to hold mandatory AGMs

05:55 AM Nov 12, 2009SINGAPORE - Real estate investment trusts (Reits) will be required to hold annual general meetings, or AGMs, once every calendar year with effect from next year.

This is a new requirement introduced by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) under the revised Property Funds Appendix.

MAS said mandatory AGMs will enhance corporate governance for Reit by providing an important channel for communication between Reir managers and unit holders.

This will allow Reit managers to be more accountable to unit holders, MAS said.

In addition, MAS said AGMs will also provide a regular opportunity for Reit managers to seek general mandates from unitholders for the issuance of new units.

The central bank said the revision took into account feedback from its public consultation earlier this year as well as discussions with Reit players. Irene Chan

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