TODAY ONLINE : A sign of buyer resistance?

A sign of buyer resistance?

COV and prices up, but by lower margin

05:55 AM Apr 02, 2010

by Esther Ng



SINGAPORE - Prices of HDB resale flats have been climbing for three quarters, the last two at more than 3 per cent each. Now, the rate of growth has slowed to 2.7 per cent in the first three months of this year.

And the median cash over valuation (COV) amount - after doubling in the fourth quarter - has risen by just $1,000 to $25,000, while resale volume headed south for two consecutive quarters.

Could this, coming after recent property cooling measures by the Government, be a sign that resale prices are encountering buyer resistance?

It is the first possible indication that resale prices may not rise by as much as they did last year, property experts told MediaCorp, but it is still a wait-and-see situation.

"It's the right signal; it shows prices are growing at a slower pace," said Ngee Ann Polytechnic real estate lecturer Nicholas Mak.

The number of Built-to-Order (BTO) flats to be launched by HDB this year is also expected to take some steam off the resale market, said Mr Eugene Lim, associate director of ERA Asia Pacific.

But, he added, demand still outstrips supply: "The demand for resale flats comes predominantly from upgraders, downgraders and permanent residents because of their immediate housing needs."

The HDB announced it will launch this month 1,200 BTO flats in Punggol and, from May to September, another 7,400 BTO flats in areas such as Sengkang, Jurong West, Yishun, Bukit Panjang and Woodlands.

But some, like sales manager Sri Aran, cannot wait three years for a new flat. He plans to upgrade from his three-room flat to a five-roomer, as his 16-year-old son now shares a room with his grandfather, but is concerned about rising resale prices.

While it makes more sense for first-time households to buy direct from the HDB as there is no COV, these buyers could "return to the resale market with a vengeance" since the rejection rate of BTOs is about 50 per cent, said Chesterton Suntec International's head of research and consultancy Colin Tan.

However, the estimated number of resale transactions for the first quarter fell by 5 per cent, after a 23-per-cent drop in the fourth quarter. Mr Mak attributed this to slower sales during the Chinese New Year holiday and the gradual effects of the cooling measures.

Mr Lim agreed: "We need to watch Q2 and Q3, which tend to experience a lot more market activity."

Property consultants expect resale prices to rise between 5 and 10 per cent this year. The Resale Price Index has risen by 3.5 per cent annually, on average, since 2000. Last year's hike was 8.2 per cent.

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