TODAY ONLINE : Mah Bow Tan sketches his vision of Singapore in 2020

The architect

Mah Bow Tan sketches his vision of Singapore in 2020

05:55 AM Mar 27, 2010 by Loh Chee Kong

WITH the exception of our urban planners who have meticulously mapped out the island's transformation for the decades beyond, for most of us, the Singapore of 2020 will be almost unrecognisable from today - even though the metamorphosis is already very much underway.

Who would have thought the once-sleepy and dusty Jurong will be turned into an enchanting lake enclave, lined with waterfront housing and al fresco eateries? Few could have envisaged the Kallang Basin as a tourist magnet or the Rochor-Ophir corridor as home to commercial skyscrapers amid lush greenery.

But with the transformation of the Marina Bay area almost complete - with the Marina Bay Sands soon to follow the Marina Barrage as imposing landmarks - the future could come sooner than you think.

And you would not have to step out of your homes to notice the difference, as HDB flats start to match the aesthetics of private condos. Think The Pinnacle@Duxton (picture).

But all this is only one part of the equation.

Over the next decade, national development policymakers will face a myriad of intertwining challenges stemming from the forces of globalisation and an ageing population - issues faced by every major developing city, but given an added dimension by Singapore's drive to be a top-class global city without the comforts of a hinterland which will provide its people a respite from the constant reurbanisation.

"As everybody gets plugged into the (global) network, you get the high net worth (individuals), the middle class and the lower income. Globalisation also brings with it other issues like immigration ... As a global city, how do we deal with property prices rising sharply in future?" National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said as he gazed out of a glass window in a meeting room on the 22nd floor of the MND offices on Maxwell Road.

The picturesque view of The Pinnacle towering over rows of conserved shophouses and pockets of construction sites offered a snapshot of the opportunities and challenges ahead - little wonder that this is one of Mr Mah's favourite vistas, one he has always shown foreign visitors over the last 11 years he has served as National Development Minister.

He was speaking to Weekend Today as part of a series of reports exploring Singapore's development path in the decade ahead.

'We are not starting from scratch'

Come what may, Mr Mah reiterated the Government's "guarantee" that there will always be a sufficient supply of flats - be it new public units or existing ones on the resale market - to ensure that every newly-married couple can buy a new home. What it cannot promise is that it will be a unit of their choice.

"One new challenge we need to deal with is the challenge of rising expectations, as people don't just look for any roof over their heads - now they want a comfortable home, they want a home in a good location, they want to be able to upgrade to a private property - so they look for a HDB flat which they can monetise quickly."

Having seen several property cycles during his time at the helm, Mr Mah was unfazed with the current property frenzy - driven by a combination of pent-up demand, an influx of immigrants and panic-buying - which he believes will "die down ... and reach a certain level".

What is important, he says, is not to lose sight of the tenets of Singapore's public housing programme: Providing access to public housing for a large majority of the population; allowing Singaporeans to own their homes; and sustaining the value of their flats over a lifetime - thus enabling owners to monetise their units.

Mr Mah stressed that no other country runs a public housing programme successfully on those three counts - a fact he believes is sometimes lost on Singaporeans.

Typically, countries provide public apartments for between 20 and 30 per cent of their population - 50 per cent in the case of Hong Kong - and newlyweds find themselves staying in rented homes for several years.

Said Mr Mah: "What we have to recognise and understand is that we are not starting from scratch; we are not dealing with these challenges from a standing start. We have had 50 years of very successful public housing programmes."

Currently, more than 80 per cent of the population here lives in HDB flats - a figure that has been steadily dipping from around 90 per cent a few decades ago.

And as private housing becomes attainable to a larger segment due to rising affluence, Mr Mah expects the proportion to go down further, hitting a stable level of around 75 per cent in the decade ahead.

Said Mr Mah: "I can't see it coming down too much because then the private housing will not be able to cope" - there's only so much space designated for such property in Singapore - "and the gap between private and public housing will be even bigger".

Flat for newlyweds 'in 2, 2.5 years'

Despite the rising aspirations and an increasingly fragmented population, Mr Mah was confident that the Government can meet expectations - pointing to The Pinnacle and the premium Dawson projects as examples of how HDB would "differentiate" its products.

While some have argued that such projects would compromise the social objective of public housing - as it is generally defined elsewhere - they are in line with the Government's stance of "extensive coverage".

Said Mr Mah: "Within the HDB (flat-buying) chunk, you still have huge disparity ... if I were to build a three-room for a person with (an income of) $8,000, he will probably turn his nose up at it."

Pointing out that prices in the private and public property markets are interlinked, Mr Mah reiterated the Government's principle of letting the market set the prices. However, it will sieve out speculators and push out more supply from time to time to ensure the prices are in sync with fundamental demand.

The Government will also strive to bring down the waiting time - which stands at around three years - for newlyweds to get the keys to their new flats.

Mr Mah noted that, as recently as the late '90s, young couples had to wait five years for their flats to be ready.

With property cycles shortening and the economy becoming increasingly volatile, it was simply impossible for the Government to predict demand and build flats in advance, said Mr Mah.

It tried to do that in the past - to "huge" consequences, with new flats sitting empty for years, Mr Mah noted.

"Because HDB has been able to plan - but not build - the projects in advance, we've have been able to cut the process. We can't achieve zero waiting time ... If we can bring it down to two to two-and-a-half years, by all means," said Mr Mah.

And it is not just the economic forces that are shaping housing policies.

The strong trend towards the nuclearisation of the family structure means that the policymakers have had to provide a greater array of options, to cater for various living arrangements.

Noting that the elderly are becoming more socially and financially independent, Mr Mah said the Government will be building more studio apartments, either as standalones or attachments in the form of multigenerational flats. It will also be experimenting with new housing typologies, including variations of the existing models.

While more nursing homes will be introduced into housing estates, Mr Mah added that the existing self-contained layout of each estate will continue to serve the population well.

'Polar bears don't hit home'

For a resource-scarce country like Singapore, it is perplexing that its population are not quite seized by the issue of sustainable development.

Mr Mah, who co-chairs the inter-ministerial committee on sustainable development with Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim, said: "On a day-to-day basis, people do not feel the shortage (of resources). So if you talk about global warming, climate change, ice caps and polar bears ... it doesn't hit home."

Still, the Government will continue its educational efforts and incentivise the population to reduce their energy consumption.

Yet, as environmentalists have pointed out, the country's rapid pace of urban renewal only enhances a "use-and-throw" mentality among Singaporeans.

Mr Mah acknowledged the legitimate concerns but he reiterated the economic case for tearing down buildings, instead of repairing and refurbishing them.

"It's a pure economic argument. Why? Because land cost has gone up so much and the zoning allows you to redevelop," said Mr Mah, pointing to how the plot of land The Pinnacle sits on now houses 1,800 units - as compared to just 200 flats in the old development.

Still, environmentalists will be glad to know that the Government has every intention of preserving Singapore's "Garden City" status, with parks and greenery to remain a key feature ­­­- which Mr Mah described as a competitive advantage in the global hunt for talent.

'We are not farmers'

Recently, much focus have been centred on the construction industry, which has been cited as a sector that needs to overhaul itself and improve productivity.

And Mr Mah reckoned it would take the industry "a minimum of 10 years" to achieve that, though he said he was encouraged by a general consensus in the industry that such an overhaul was absolutely necessary.

Stressing that the increase in foreign levy would just be a means to an end, Mr Mah said the industry must ultimately turn to improved technology, prefabrication and better project management.

Said Mr Mah: "It starts off with the developers. The developers must be prepared to specify things which allow for higher productivity. The designers, architects, engineers must put in place more buildable designs, then the contractors and sub-contractors come in ... then the Government comes in with incentives."

Yet for all the remarkable strides that Singapore has made since independence, it can never run away from its intrinsic vulnerabilities - and the sobering truth is underlined by the fact that there is still one basic area where Singapore would, in all probability, never be self-sufficient: Food.

Some 70 to 80 per cent of the population's food supplies are imported.

And it is not planning to acquire land in other countries, as some rich countries have done.

A Guardian report last year pointed out that the acquisition of farmland from the world's poor by rich countries and international corporations was accelerating at an alarming rate. Some of the largest deals include South Korea's acquisition of 700,000 hectares in Sudan and Saudi Arabia's purchase of 500,000ha in Tanzania.

Citing the political sensitivities involved, Mr Mah said the Government will not go down that road.

"The Government are not farmers," he quipped.

The writer is a freelance correspondent.

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